2024 Presidential Election odds, predictions: Donald Trump’s odds skyrocket after shooting, now biggest favorite yet

Betting Odds via BetMGM UK

Note: Gambling on elections is not legally permitted in the United States.

Following a dramatic assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, former President Donald Trump has emerged as a stronger favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.

The Incident
During the rally, Trump was shot, resulting in a tragic incident that left at least one person dead and others injured. Trump himself was wounded in the right ear and fell to the ground. However, with the help of the Secret Service, he stood up and defiantly raised his fist to the cheering crowd. He was then taken to a hospital, where he was declared to be in good condition.

Officials are investigating the incident as an assassination attempt.

Impact on 2024 Presidential Campaign
With Trump recovering well, attention swiftly shifted to how this event would influence his campaign for the 2024 election. Overnight, the odds for the presidential race shifted significantly.

Updated Election Odds
Trump is now a -400 favorite to win the 2024 election, which translates to a 64.94% chance of victory in November. Before the shooting, his odds were -225, or a 57.24% chance.

This -400 line makes Trump the most favored candidate in a U.S. presidential election since he himself was a -500 or longer favorite on the eve of the 2020 election. It’s also notable as the first time a candidate has had implied odds of over 60% to win the 2024 election.

Current Odds for Other Candidates

President Joe Biden: +500 (13.53% chance of re-election)
Vice President Kamala Harris: +800

Prior to the shooting, Biden’s odds were +550, placing him behind Harris at +450. Harris’s odds had changed from +325 on Friday to +450 hours before the incident.

Context and Predictions
Election odds provide a unique perspective alongside national polls in predicting the winner of the 270 electoral votes necessary for the Electoral College. This prevents the presidential election from being decided by the House of Representatives if no candidate achieves the required electoral votes.

Trump’s Statement and Ongoing Campaign
Trump issued a statement regarding the shooting on Saturday evening. Biden’s odds have continued to decline following the first presidential debate in late June. While Biden was initially the favorite among Democrats, Harris took the lead on July 3. Despite Biden’s brief resurgence after a recent interview, Harris once again overtook him just before a press conference.

Trump’s Rising Favorability
Since the first presidential debate, Trump’s odds have improved significantly. Initially a -137 favorite a week before the debate, his odds increased to -150 and then to -200 after the debate. Following the assassination attempt, his odds surged to -400.

Summary
In less than a month, Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have dramatically improved from -137 to -400.